Quintessential PGMs: Market Trends and Future Outlook for 2024-2025

Introduction:

The Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) market continues to face a complex interplay of challenges and opportunities as it navigates volatile price trends, shifting industrial demands, and evolving regional production dynamics. Palladium, platinum, and rhodium remain at the center of attention due to their critical applications in automotive, industrial, and emerging green technologies. This summary provides an overview of key market developments, regional insights, and future expectations shaping the PGM landscape for 2024-2025.

Summary Points:

• Market Trends:

  • Palladium, platinum, and rhodium prices remain in a sideways trend due to stagnant demand and limited mine closures in South Africa.
    
    
  • Recycling of spent autocatalyst scrap is expected to increase, pressuring prices despite ongoing demand fluctuations.

• Automotive Sector:

  • Lower automotive production and PGM thrifting programs have reduced demand, particularly for palladium and rhodium.
  • Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV) market penetration growth slows, increasing demand for hybrid vehicles, benefiting palladium.

• Regional Insights:

  • Russia: PGM production is highly price-inelastic, with output expected to grow despite geopolitical and market
    
    

    challenges.

  • South Africa: High-cost mines face operational challenges, with potential 10% output decline in 2025 due to cost optimization efforts.
  • North America: Significant production cuts expected in 2025, with restructuring at major mines reducing annual output.
  • Zimbabwe: Anticipated production stability despite tax impositions on unrefined exports.

• Recycling Dynamics:

  • North America and Europe face capacity underloads, while China benefits from government trade-in programs encouraging catalyst recycling.
  • PGM secondary supply is projected to recover in 2025, increasing by 9% YoY.

• Industrial Applications:

  • Rising industrial use of platinum (+5%) and palladium (-2%) in electronics and chemical sectors.
  • Advances in hydrogen fuel cells and palladium-based catalysts offer cost and efficiency benefits for green technologies.

• Innovation and R&D:

  • Nornickel’s Palladium Centre focuses on palladium substitution in traditional and green technologies, targeting new demand drivers in hydrogen and solar energy.

• Future Outlook:

  • PGM markets are expected to remain balanced, with minor deficits in platinum and rhodium.
  • Declines in global primary supply for palladium (-1%), platinum (-4%), and rhodium (-2%) anticipated in 2025.

This article highlights the challenges and opportunities shaping the PGM market, emphasizing the importance of innovation and strategic adaptation to evolving industry demands.